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Dinaz Vyshhorod vs SK Poltava — Persha Liga 2019

Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SK Poltava
SK Poltava
10/14/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 12Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod33%
×Draw26%
SK Poltava41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.23
SK Poltava
1.42

SK Poltava creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.00
SK Poltava
1.43

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.41
SK Poltava
1.46

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par
SK Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

SK Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw
59%
Dinaz Vyshhorod or SK Poltava
74%
Draw or SK Poltava
67%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
14%
SK Poltava wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
71%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
35%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
13%
SK Poltava 1+ goals
76%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
41%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
44%
SK Poltava (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

SK Poltava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.00 + SK Poltava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

SK Poltava attack 1.43 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
33%
level
26%
SK Poltava scores more
41%

SK Poltava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Dinaz Vyshhorod 3–1 SK Poltava

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat SK Poltava 3-1 in Persha Liga on October 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demydiv.