Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv — Persha Liga 2019

SK Poltava
SK Poltava
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
10/1/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SK Poltava48%
×Draw25%
Chernihiv27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Poltava
1.58
Chernihiv
1.12

SK Poltava creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 41 away

creates per match

SK Poltava
1.54
Chernihiv
1.00

allows per match

SK Poltava
1.24
Chernihiv
1.63

finishing

SK Poltava+0.00on par
Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Poltava ↓

Chernihiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SK Poltava or draw
73%
SK Poltava or Chernihiv
75%
Draw or Chernihiv
52%

Winning margin

SK Poltava wins by 2+
25%
Chernihiv wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SK Poltava 1+ goals
79%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
47%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
21%
Chernihiv 1+ goals
67%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
31%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SK Poltava (draw refunded)
64%
Chernihiv (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Poltava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Poltava attack 1.54 + Chernihiv defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chernihiv attack 1.00 + SK Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SK Poltava scores more
48%
level
25%
Chernihiv scores more
27%

SK Poltava at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SK Poltava vs Chernihiv

SK Poltava and Chernihiv drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Poltava.