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Chernihiv vs SK Poltava — Persha Liga 2019

Chernihiv
Chernihiv
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SK Poltava
SK Poltava
11/25/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 18Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Chernihiv33%
×Draw25%
SK Poltava42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernihiv
1.31
SK Poltava
1.50

SK Poltava creates 15% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 37 away

creates per match

Chernihiv
1.17
SK Poltava
1.43

allows per match

Chernihiv
1.56
SK Poltava
1.46

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par
SK Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

SK Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw
58%
Chernihiv or SK Poltava
75%
Draw or SK Poltava
67%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+
14%
SK Poltava wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals
73%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
38%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
14%
SK Poltava 1+ goals
78%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
44%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)
44%
SK Poltava (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

SK Poltava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.17 + SK Poltava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

SK Poltava attack 1.43 + Chernihiv defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chernihiv scores more
33%
level
25%
SK Poltava scores more
42%

SK Poltava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Chernihiv 2–2 SK Poltava

Chernihiv and SK Poltava drew 2-2 in Persha Liga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yunist in Chernihiv.