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SJK vs Paide — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SJK
SJK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paide
Paide
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wallsport Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SJK75%
×Draw17%
Paide8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
2.16
Paide
0.53

SJK creates 308% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

SJK
1.82
Paide
0.50

allows per match

SJK
0.55
Paide
2.50

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
Paide+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

Paide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SJK or draw
92%
SJK or Paide
83%
Draw or Paide
25%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
50%
Paide wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
88%
SJK 2+ goals
63%
SJK 3+ goals
36%
Paide 1+ goals
41%
Paide 2+ goals
10%
Paide 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
91%
Paide (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Paide away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.82 + Paide defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.16

Paide attack 0.50 + SJK defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

SJK scores more
75%
level
17%
Paide scores more
8%

SJK at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SJK vs Paide

SJK beat Paide 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena in Seinäjoki.