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Paide vs SJK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SJK
SJK
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paide27%
×Draw24%
SJK49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
1.24
SJK
1.73

SJK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paide
1.89
SJK
1.80

allows per match

Paide
1.67
SJK
0.60

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

SJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paide or draw
51%
Paide or SJK
76%
Draw or SJK
73%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
11%
SJK wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
71%
Paide 2+ goals
35%
Paide 3+ goals
13%
SJK 1+ goals
82%
SJK 2+ goals
52%
SJK 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
36%
SJK (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

SJK away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 1.89 + SJK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

SJK attack 1.80 + Paide defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paide scores more
27%
level
24%
SJK scores more
49%

SJK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Paide 0–2 SJK

SJK beat Paide 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.