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SJK vs KPV Kokkola — Veikkausliiga 2018

SJK
SJK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
4/30/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 5OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SJK47%
×Draw24%
KPV Kokkola29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.68
KPV Kokkola
1.25

SJK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 14 away

creates per match

SJK
1.50
KPV Kokkola
1.21

allows per match

SJK
1.28
KPV Kokkola
1.86

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SJK or draw
71%
SJK or KPV Kokkola
76%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
53%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
25%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
81%
SJK 2+ goals
50%
SJK 3+ goals
24%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
71%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
36%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
62%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 1.50 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + SJK defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SJK scores more
47%
level
24%
KPV Kokkola scores more
29%

SJK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: SJK 1–0 KPV Kokkola

SJK beat KPV Kokkola 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinajoki.