Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SJK vs KPV Kokkola — Suomen Cup 2018

SJK
SJK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
2/22/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Wallsport Areena (Seinäjoki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SJK25%
×Draw22%
KPV Kokkola53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK
1.29
KPV Kokkola
1.97

KPV Kokkola creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

SJK
2.29
KPV Kokkola
2.43

allows per match

SJK
1.50
KPV Kokkola
0.29

finishing

SJK+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SJK or draw
47%
SJK or KPV Kokkola
78%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
75%

Winning margin

SJK wins by 2+
10%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

SJK 1+ goals
72%
SJK 2+ goals
37%
SJK 3+ goals
14%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
86%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
58%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

SJK (draw refunded)
32%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK attack 2.29 + KPV Kokkola defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

KPV Kokkola attack 2.43 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SJK scores more
25%
level
22%
KPV Kokkola scores more
53%

KPV Kokkola at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SJK vs KPV Kokkola

SJK and KPV Kokkola drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Wallsport Areena (Seinäjoki).