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SJK-juniorit vs OsPa — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

SJK-juniorit
SJK-juniorit
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
OsPa
OsPa
6/1/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SJK-juniorit44%
×Draw20%
OsPa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SJK-juniorit
2.29
OsPa
2.09

SJK-juniorit creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

creates per match

SJK-juniorit
2.25
OsPa
2.44

allows per match

SJK-juniorit
1.75
OsPa
2.33

finishing

SJK-juniorit+0.00on par
OsPa+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-juniorit ↓

OsPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

SJK-juniorit or draw
64%
SJK-juniorit or OsPa
80%
Draw or OsPa
56%

Winning margin

SJK-juniorit wins by 2+
25%
OsPa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SJK-juniorit 1+ goals
90%
SJK-juniorit 2+ goals
66%
SJK-juniorit 3+ goals
40%
OsPa 1+ goals
88%
OsPa 2+ goals
62%
OsPa 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SJK-juniorit (draw refunded)
54%
OsPa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK-juniorit at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

OsPa away — creates 2.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK-juniorit attack 2.25 + OsPa defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

OsPa attack 2.44 + SJK-juniorit defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SJK-juniorit scores more
44%
level
20%
OsPa scores more
36%

SJK-juniorit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SJK-juniorit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: SJK-juniorit 1–2 OsPa

OsPa beat SJK-juniorit 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.