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OsPa vs SJK-juniorit — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OsPa
OsPa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SJK-juniorit
SJK-juniorit
8/3/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 16Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

OsPa57%
×Draw17%
SJK-juniorit25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OsPa
3.05
SJK-juniorit
2.05

OsPa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

OsPa
3.88
SJK-juniorit
2.48

allows per match

OsPa
1.63
SJK-juniorit
2.22

finishing

OsPa+0.00on par
SJK-juniorit+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OsPa ↓

SJK-juniorit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

OsPa or draw
75%
OsPa or SJK-juniorit
83%
Draw or SJK-juniorit
43%

Winning margin

OsPa wins by 2+
38%
SJK-juniorit wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

OsPa 1+ goals
95%
OsPa 2+ goals
80%
OsPa 3+ goals
57%
SJK-juniorit 1+ goals
87%
SJK-juniorit 2+ goals
61%
SJK-juniorit 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

OsPa (draw refunded)
69%
SJK-juniorit (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OsPa at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

SJK-juniorit away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OsPa attack 3.88 + SJK-juniorit defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 3.05

SJK-juniorit attack 2.48 + OsPa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

OsPa scores more
57%
level
17%
SJK-juniorit scores more
25%

OsPa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "OsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: OsPa 1–2 SJK-juniorit

SJK-juniorit beat OsPa 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.