SJK-juniorit 2–1 OPS Oulu: Result & Stats

SJK-juniorit

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

OPS Oulu

L. Autti 81'

E. Anokye 66'

R. Blomberg 45+3'

5/4/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 4OmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SJK-juniorit61%

×Draw18%

OPS Oulu21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK-junioritExpected goals in this matchOPS Oulu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.63

SJK-juniorit

2.79

OPS Oulu

1.63

SJK-juniorit creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

2.25

creates per match

1.50

1.75

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

SJK-juniorit

2.25

OPS Oulu

1.50

allows per match

SJK-juniorit

1.75

OPS Oulu

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK-juniorit+0.00on par

OPS Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK-juniorit ↓

OPS Oulu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

SJK-juniorit or draw

79%

SJK-juniorit or OPS Oulu

82%

Draw or OPS Oulu

39%

Winning margin

SJK-juniorit wins by 2+

41%

OPS Oulu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SJK-juniorit 1+ goals

94%

SJK-juniorit 2+ goals

76%

SJK-juniorit 3+ goals

52%

OPS Oulu 1+ goals

80%

OPS Oulu 2+ goals

48%

OPS Oulu 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

SJK-juniorit (draw refunded)

74%

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK-juniorit at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

OPS Oulu away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK-juniorit attack 2.25 + OPS Oulu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

OPS Oulu attack 1.50 + SJK-juniorit defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SJK-juniorit scores more

61%

level

18%

OPS Oulu scores more

21%

SJK-juniorit at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "SJK-juniorit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Ainasoja← N. Tahmbi

44'

45+3'

47'

53'

65'

66'

67'

T. Poutiainen← J. Vääräniemi

71'

D. Chukwu

79'

L. Kilpelänaho← M. Juntunen

81'

L. Autti

85'

E. Koskinen

85'

E. Koskinen

86'

A. Välimäki← L. Kyllönen

86'

H. Al-Karkhi← E. Anokye

87'

H. Al Karkhi

89'

D. Chukwu

89'

D. Chukwu

90+2'

E. Lehto

SJK-juniorit

OPS

12

Pekkala

5

⚽

18

15

20

16

▼

11

6

8

10

9

▼

32

16

5

21

▼

Kyllönen

55

Lehto

17

▼

Tahmbi

72

Nikkilä

20

⚽

Autti

30

▼

Akansase

29

⚽

▼

Anokye

6

Yakubu

Manager: N. Hasa

30'▲A. Ainasoja←▼N. Tahmbi

65'▲E. Ngom←▼E. Akansase

86'▲A. Välimäki←▼L. Kyllönen

86'▲H. Al-Karkhi←▼E. Anokye

SJK-juniorit substitutes

76Ainasoja31Ngom33Välimäki39Al-Karkhi66Harju

Manager: M. Juntunen

67'▲T. Poutiainen←▼J. Vääräniemi

79'▲L. Kilpelänaho←▼M. Juntunen

OPS Oulu substitutes

19Poutiainen13Kilpelänaho

Match Recap: SJK-juniorit vs OPS Oulu

SJK-juniorit beat OPS Oulu 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 4, 2024.

Goals: R. Blomberg (45+3'), E. Anokye (66'), L. Autti (81').

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion in Seinäjoki.

SJK-juniorit vs OPS Oulu — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SJK-juniorit vs OPS Oulu