OPS Oulu 1–2 SJK-juniorit: Result & Stats

OPS Oulu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

SJK-juniorit

J. Vääräniemi 83'

T. Kangaskokko 78'

R. Malik 47'

7/7/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 13Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OPS Oulu43%

×Draw21%

SJK-juniorit36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OPS OuluExpected goals in this matchSJK-juniorit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.92

OPS Oulu

2.11

SJK-juniorit

1.92

OPS Oulu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

2.48

1.36

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

OPS Oulu

2.00

SJK-juniorit

2.48

allows per match

OPS Oulu

1.36

SJK-juniorit

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OPS Oulu+0.00on par

SJK-juniorit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OPS Oulu ↓

SJK-juniorit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

OPS Oulu or draw

64%

OPS Oulu or SJK-juniorit

79%

Draw or SJK-juniorit

57%

Winning margin

OPS Oulu wins by 2+

24%

SJK-juniorit wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

OPS Oulu 1+ goals

88%

OPS Oulu 2+ goals

62%

OPS Oulu 3+ goals

35%

SJK-juniorit 1+ goals

85%

SJK-juniorit 2+ goals

57%

SJK-juniorit 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)

54%

SJK-juniorit (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OPS Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

SJK-juniorit away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OPS Oulu attack 2.00 + SJK-juniorit defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

SJK-juniorit attack 2.48 + OPS Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OPS Oulu scores more

43%

level

21%

SJK-juniorit scores more

36%

OPS Oulu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OPS Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

O. Ajayi

8'

E. Hyytinen

37'

S. S. Attah

46'

M. Juntunen← J. Haapala

47'

R. Malik

78'

J. Vaaraniemi

78'

T. Kangaskokko

79'

L. Kilpelänaho← M. Juntunen

83'

J. Vääräniemi

88'

A. Hakala← L. Autti

OPS

SJK-juniorit

25

Honkola

60

Kivelä

24

Löytökorp

5

⚽

58

66

15

72

53

20

▼

Autti

22

⚽

12

5

18

24

15

11

▼

6

8

10

25

9

⚽

Vääräniem

Manager: M. Juntunen

46'▲M. Juntunen←▼J. Haapala

79'▲L. Kilpelänaho←▼M. Juntunen

OPS Oulu substitutes

16Juntunen13Kilpelänaho2Kemppainen23Salo

Manager: N. Hasa

88'▲A. Hakala←▼L. Autti

SJK-juniorit substitutes

42Hakala32Heinämäki76Ainasoja