SJK Akatemia 2–0 KPV-j: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

SJK Akatemia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KPV-j

5/13/2026

Suomen Cup · Round of 32OmaSp Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SJK Akatemia13%

×Draw15%

KPV-j72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SJK AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchKPV-j

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.13

SJK Akatemia

1.33

KPV-j

3.13

KPV-j creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

0.89

creates per match

3.15

3.11

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

SJK Akatemia

0.89

KPV-j

3.15

allows per match

SJK Akatemia

3.11

KPV-j

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SJK Akatemia ↓

KPV-j →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

SJK Akatemia or draw

28%

SJK Akatemia or KPV-j

85%

Draw or KPV-j

87%

Winning margin

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

5%

KPV-j wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

74%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

38%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

15%

KPV-j 1+ goals

95%

KPV-j 2+ goals

81%

KPV-j 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

16%

KPV-j (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SJK Akatemia at home — creates 0.89, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

KPV-j away — creates 3.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SJK Akatemia attack 0.89 + KPV-j defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.33

KPV-j attack 3.15 + SJK Akatemia defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SJK Akatemia scores more

13%

level

15%

KPV-j scores more

72%

KPV-j at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff