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KPV-j vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkönen 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
8/12/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 19Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

KPV-j49%
×Draw23%
SJK Akatemia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
1.79
SJK Akatemia
1.29

KPV-j creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 39 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.64
SJK Akatemia
1.23

allows per match

KPV-j
1.36
SJK Akatemia
1.95

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
72%
KPV-j or SJK Akatemia
77%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
51%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
27%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
83%
KPV-j 2+ goals
53%
KPV-j 3+ goals
26%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
72%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
37%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
64%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.64 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

SJK Akatemia attack 1.23 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KPV-j scores more
49%
level
23%
SJK Akatemia scores more
28%

KPV-j at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KPV-j vs SJK Akatemia

KPV-j and SJK Akatemia drew 1-1 in Ykkönen on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.