Siwelele 1–0 Orbit College: Result & Stats

Siwelele

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orbit College

C. Ohizu 10'

3/22/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 22Free State Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Siwelele50%

×Draw31%

Orbit College19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiweleleExpected goals in this matchOrbit College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.59

Siwelele

1.17

Orbit College

0.59

Siwelele creates 98% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

0.93

creates per match

0.71

0.47

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Siwelele

0.93

Orbit College

0.71

allows per match

Siwelele

0.47

Orbit College

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siwelele+0.00on par

Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siwelele ↓

Orbit College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Siwelele or draw

81%

Siwelele or Orbit College

69%

Draw or Orbit College

50%

Winning margin

Siwelele wins by 2+

22%

Orbit College wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Siwelele 1+ goals

69%

Siwelele 2+ goals

33%

Siwelele 3+ goals

11%

Orbit College 1+ goals

45%

Orbit College 2+ goals

12%

Orbit College 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Siwelele (draw refunded)

73%

Orbit College (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siwelele at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siwelele attack 0.93 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Siwelele defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Siwelele scores more

50%

level

31%

Orbit College scores more

19%

Siwelele at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siwelele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

N. Rapoo

Siwelele · D

8.3

Match Events

10'

C. Ohizu↳ T. Potsane

24'

Y. Madiba← B. Onyango

43'

Atisang Batsi

45+1'

Thuso Moleleki

46'

M. Wagaba← A. Batsi

46'

S. Mabele← T. Moleleki

46'

B. Motshwari← L. Kapinga

52'

65'

65'

66'

66'

G. Moralo← R. Mokhuoane

70'

Yanga Madiba

73'

A. Baliti← N. Rapoo

83'

K. Masangane← G. Khoto

84'

Realeboga Potsana

90+1'

Thato Letshedi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiweleleOrbit

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots8

6Corners4

9Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked3

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

375Total Passes255

298Accurate Passes176

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3