Orbit College 1–0 Siwelele: Result & Stats

Orbit College

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siwelele

L. Koapeng 73'

8/12/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Olympia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orbit College35%

×Draw31%

Siwelele34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orbit CollegeExpected goals in this matchSiwelele

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.01

Orbit College

1.02

Siwelele

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

0.65

creates per match

0.67

1.35

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Orbit College

0.65

Siwelele

0.67

allows per match

Orbit College

1.35

Siwelele

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par

Siwelele+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Siwelele →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw

66%

Orbit College or Siwelele

69%

Draw or Siwelele

65%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+

13%

Siwelele wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals

64%

Orbit College 2+ goals

27%

Orbit College 3+ goals

8%

Siwelele 1+ goals

64%

Siwelele 2+ goals

27%

Siwelele 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)

50%

Siwelele (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Siwelele away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Siwelele defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.02

Siwelele attack 0.67 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Orbit College scores more

35%

level

31%

Siwelele scores more

34%

Orbit College at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Orbit College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Koapeng

Orbit College · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

Realeboga Potsana

24'

Thabang Nhlapo

46'

L. Lakay← C. Saile

62'

W. Lekay← S. Magidigidi

73'

L. Koapeng↳ S. Mabele

79'

K. Ayer Boya← M. Pule

79'

G. Margeman← G. Moralo

81'

T. Matsemela← L. Koapeng

90+2'

L. Modimoeng← A. Batsi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrbitSiwelele

Overview

32%Possession68%

4Total Shots14

4Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

4Total Shots14

3On Target4

1Off Target8

0Blocked2

3Inside Box4

1Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

274Total Passes612

189Accurate Passes538

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1