Siwelele 1–0 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Siwelele

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Marumo Gallants

T. Potsane 39'

9/28/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 9Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Siwelele51%

×Draw31%

Marumo Gallants18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiweleleExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.59

Siwelele

1.19

Marumo Gallants

0.59

Siwelele creates 102% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

0.93

creates per match

0.72

0.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Siwelele

0.93

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Siwelele

0.47

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siwelele+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siwelele ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Siwelele or draw

82%

Siwelele or Marumo Gallants

69%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

49%

Winning margin

Siwelele wins by 2+

23%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Siwelele 1+ goals

70%

Siwelele 2+ goals

33%

Siwelele 3+ goals

12%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

45%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

12%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Siwelele (draw refunded)

73%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siwelele at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siwelele attack 0.93 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Siwelele defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Siwelele scores more

51%

level

31%

Marumo Gallants scores more

18%

Siwelele at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Siwelele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Potsane

Siwelele · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo

13'

Ghampani Lungu

14'

K. Ncube← K. Mhlongo

15'

Yandisa Mfolozi

39'

T. Potsane↳ R. Mokhuoane

45+6'

Relebogile Mokhuoane

46'

S. Zwane← R. Mokhuoane

46'

H. Mashiane← Y. Mfolozi

46'

M. Mpambaniso← L. Mabotja

65'

J. Clifford← N. Ndlondlo

66'

K. Ayer Boya← M. Pule

76'

L. Lakay← G. Moralo

76'

Z. Lepasa← C. Ohizu

81'

D. K. Mashao← T. Motloung

81'

K. Sithole←

87'

Zakhele Lepasa

88'

Ricardo Goss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiweleleMarumo

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots10

3Corners3

21Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots10

2On Target3

0Off Target5

3Blocked2

4Inside Box6

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

287Total Passes356

202Accurate Passes263

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls13

5Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2