Marumo Gallants 0–0 Siwelele: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siwelele

4/18/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 25Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marumo Gallants42%

×Draw31%

Siwelele27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchSiwelele

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.84

Marumo Gallants

1.13

Siwelele

0.84

Marumo Gallants creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

0.67

1.01

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Siwelele

0.67

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Siwelele

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Siwelele+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Siwelele →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

73%

Marumo Gallants or Siwelele

69%

Draw or Siwelele

58%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

18%

Siwelele wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

68%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

31%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

11%

Siwelele 1+ goals

57%

Siwelele 2+ goals

21%

Siwelele 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

61%

Siwelele (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Siwelele away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Siwelele defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Siwelele attack 0.67 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

42%

level

31%

Siwelele scores more

27%

Marumo Gallants at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

S. Nhlapo

Marumo Gallants · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo

32'

Edgar Manaka

46'

J. Clifford← M. Marou

46'

B. Mabuza← I. Bance

46'

S. Jeza← C. Saile

50'

Thato Letshedi

58'

M. Mpambaniso← N. Ndlondlo

60'

G. Moralo← M. Mazibuko

68'

Gape Moralo

70'

T. Dhludhlu← K. Otladisa

79'

Sekela Sithole

81'

W. Lekay← B. Ngwato

87'

P. Sanoka← S. Ndebele

89'

Siyabonga Nhlapo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoSiwelele

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots11

1Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots11

0On Target5

10Off Target4

1Blocked2

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

409Total Passes302

313Accurate Passes225

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3