Sivasspor 1–1 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Adana Demirspor

1/12/2021

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sivasspor68%

×Draw21%

Adana Demirspor11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.59

Sivasspor

1.88

Adana Demirspor

0.59

Sivasspor creates 219% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.76

creates per match

0.33

0.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sivasspor

1.76

Adana Demirspor

0.33

allows per match

Sivasspor

0.86

Adana Demirspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

89%

Sivasspor or Adana Demirspor

79%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

32%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

42%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

85%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

56%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

29%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

45%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

12%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

86%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.76 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Sivasspor defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sivasspor scores more

68%

level

21%

Adana Demirspor scores more

11%

Sivasspor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff