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Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sivasspor
Sivasspor
2/19/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Adana Demirspor40%
×Draw25%
Sivasspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
1.48
Sivasspor
1.35

Adana Demirspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Sivasspor
0.89

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Sivasspor
1.21

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Sivasspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
65%
Adana Demirspor or Sivasspor
75%
Draw or Sivasspor
60%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
19%
Sivasspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
77%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
43%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
19%
Sivasspor 1+ goals
74%
Sivasspor 2+ goals
39%
Sivasspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
54%
Sivasspor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Sivasspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sivasspor attack 0.89 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
40%
level
25%
Sivasspor scores more
35%

Adana Demirspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor

Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on February 19, 2026.

The match was played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Adana.