Sittard U21 2–6 ADO Den Haag II: Result & Stats

Sittard U21

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

ADO Den Haag II

5/9/2026

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 10Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sittard U2130%

×Draw20%

ADO Den Haag II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sittard U21Expected goals in this matchADO Den Haag II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.33

Sittard U21

1.77

ADO Den Haag II

2.33

ADO Den Haag II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

1.43

creates per match

1.36

3.29

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Sittard U21

1.43

ADO Den Haag II

1.36

allows per match

Sittard U21

3.29

ADO Den Haag II

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sittard U21+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sittard U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sittard U21 or draw

50%

Sittard U21 or ADO Den Haag II

80%

Draw or ADO Den Haag II

70%

Winning margin

Sittard U21 wins by 2+

15%

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Sittard U21 1+ goals

83%

Sittard U21 2+ goals

53%

Sittard U21 3+ goals

26%

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

90%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

67%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Sittard U21 (draw refunded)

37%

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sittard U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sittard U21 attack 1.43 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Sittard U21 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sittard U21 scores more

30%

level

20%

ADO Den Haag II scores more

50%

ADO Den Haag II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff