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ADO Den Haag II vs Sittard U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
3 – 1
Sittard U21
Sittard U21
2/7/2026U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ADO Den Haag II59%
×Draw20%
Sittard U2121%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
2.23
Sittard U21
1.25

ADO Den Haag II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 7 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
Sittard U21
0.57

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
Sittard U21
2.57

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Sittard U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Sittard U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
79%
ADO Den Haag II or Sittard U21
80%
Draw or Sittard U21
41%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
37%
Sittard U21 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
89%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
65%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
38%
Sittard U21 1+ goals
71%
Sittard U21 2+ goals
36%
Sittard U21 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
74%
Sittard U21 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Sittard U21 away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Sittard U21 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Sittard U21 attack 0.57 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
59%
level
20%
Sittard U21 scores more
21%

ADO Den Haag II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: ADO Den Haag II 3–1 Sittard U21

ADO Den Haag II beat Sittard U21 3-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on February 7, 2026.