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Sitra vs Malkiya — Premier League 2019

Sitra
Sitra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malkiya
Malkiya
Abdulla Al Bahrani 30'
1/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sitra42%
×Draw28%
Malkiya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sitra
1.30
Malkiya
1.07

Sitra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sitra
1.13
Malkiya
1.12

allows per match

Sitra
1.02
Malkiya
1.47

finishing

Sitra+0.00on par
Malkiya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sitra ↓

Malkiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sitra or draw
69%
Sitra or Malkiya
72%
Draw or Malkiya
58%

Winning margin

Sitra wins by 2+
19%
Malkiya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sitra 1+ goals
73%
Sitra 2+ goals
37%
Sitra 3+ goals
14%
Malkiya 1+ goals
66%
Malkiya 2+ goals
29%
Malkiya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sitra (draw refunded)
58%
Malkiya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sitra at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Malkiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sitra attack 1.13 + Malkiya defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Malkiya attack 1.12 + Sitra defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sitra scores more
42%
level
28%
Malkiya scores more
31%

Sitra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Abdulla Al Bahrani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sitra 0 – 1 Malkiya

Malkiya beat Sitra 1-0 in Premier League on January 9, 2025.

Goals: Abdulla Al Bahrani (30').

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.