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Malkiya vs Sitra — Premier League 2019

Malkiya
Malkiya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sitra
Sitra
Abdulwasea Al Matari 76'
5/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya34%
×Draw29%
Sitra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malkiya
1.11
Sitra
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 44 away

creates per match

Malkiya
0.88
Sitra
1.45

allows per match

Malkiya
0.88
Sitra
1.34

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par
Sitra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Sitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw
63%
Malkiya or Sitra
71%
Draw or Sitra
66%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+
14%
Sitra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals
67%
Malkiya 2+ goals
30%
Malkiya 3+ goals
10%
Sitra 1+ goals
69%
Sitra 2+ goals
33%
Sitra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)
48%
Sitra (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Sitra away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Sitra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sitra attack 1.45 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Malkiya scores more
34%
level
29%
Sitra scores more
37%

Sitra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
Abdulwasea Al Matari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malkiya vs Sitra

Sitra beat Malkiya 1-0 in Premier League on May 11, 2025.

Goals: Abdulwasea Al Matari (76').

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.