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Sisaket vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket
Sisaket
FT
1 – 0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
6/29/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 18Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sisaket44%
×Draw27%
Nong Bua Pitchaya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket
1.37
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.06

Sisaket creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sisaket
1.44
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Sisaket
0.77
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Sisaket+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sisaket or draw
71%
Sisaket or Nong Bua Pitchaya
73%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
56%

Winning margin

Sisaket wins by 2+
21%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sisaket 1+ goals
75%
Sisaket 2+ goals
40%
Sisaket 3+ goals
16%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
65%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
29%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sisaket (draw refunded)
60%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket attack 1.44 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Sisaket defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sisaket scores more
44%
level
27%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
29%

Sisaket at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sisaket vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Sisaket beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 in Thai League 2 on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium (Sisaket).