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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sisaket — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
4 – 0
Sisaket
Sisaket
11/14/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya54%
×Draw24%
Sisaket22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.67
Sisaket
0.96

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 74% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 47 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.06
Sisaket
1.02

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Sisaket
1.28

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Sisaket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
78%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Sisaket
76%
Draw or Sisaket
46%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
29%
Sisaket wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
81%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
50%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
23%
Sisaket 1+ goals
62%
Sisaket 2+ goals
25%
Sisaket 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
71%
Sisaket (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.06 + Sisaket defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sisaket attack 1.02 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
54%
level
24%
Sisaket scores more
22%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nong Bua Pitchaya 4–0 Sisaket

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Sisaket 4-0 in Thai League 2 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.