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Sisaket United vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Sisaket United
Sisaket United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chainat
Chainat
3/1/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sisaket United50%
×Draw26%
Chainat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sisaket United
1.50
Chainat
0.93

Sisaket United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sisaket United
1.52
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Sisaket United
0.79
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Sisaket United+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sisaket United ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sisaket United or draw
77%
Sisaket United or Chainat
74%
Draw or Chainat
50%

Winning margin

Sisaket United wins by 2+
26%
Chainat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sisaket United 1+ goals
78%
Sisaket United 2+ goals
44%
Sisaket United 3+ goals
19%
Chainat 1+ goals
61%
Chainat 2+ goals
24%
Chainat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sisaket United (draw refunded)
68%
Chainat (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sisaket United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sisaket United attack 1.52 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chainat attack 1.07 + Sisaket United defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sisaket United scores more
50%
level
26%
Chainat scores more
23%

Sisaket United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sisaket United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sisaket United 2–1 Chainat

Sisaket United beat Chainat 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium in Sisaket.