Chainat 2–0 Sisaket United: Result & Stats

Chainat

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sisaket United

11/2/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 11Chai Nat Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chainat48%

×Draw26%

Sisaket United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChainatExpected goals in this matchSisaket United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Chainat

1.46

Sisaket United

1.00

Chainat creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

0.82

1.19

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Chainat

1.63

Sisaket United

0.82

allows per match

Chainat

1.19

Sisaket United

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par

Sisaket United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Sisaket United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chainat or draw

74%

Chainat or Sisaket United

74%

Draw or Sisaket United

52%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+

24%

Sisaket United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals

77%

Chainat 2+ goals

43%

Chainat 3+ goals

18%

Sisaket United 1+ goals

63%

Sisaket United 2+ goals

26%

Sisaket United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)

65%

Sisaket United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Sisaket United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Sisaket United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sisaket United attack 0.82 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chainat scores more

48%

level

26%

Sisaket United scores more

26%

Chainat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff