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Siroki Brijeg vs Olimpik Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
10/31/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 13Stadion Pecara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siroki Brijeg62%
×Draw24%
Olimpik Sarajevo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siroki Brijeg
1.63
Olimpik Sarajevo
0.63

Siroki Brijeg creates 159% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg
1.38
Olimpik Sarajevo
0.29

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg
0.96
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.88

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par
Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw
86%
Siroki Brijeg or Olimpik Sarajevo
76%
Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo
38%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
34%
Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
80%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
48%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
22%
Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
47%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
13%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
81%
Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.38 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Siroki Brijeg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more
62%
level
24%
Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
14%

Siroki Brijeg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Siroki Brijeg 1–0 Olimpik Sarajevo

Siroki Brijeg beat Olimpik Sarajevo 1-0 in Premijer Liga on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pecara in Široki Brijeg.