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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
8/8/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 2Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo37%
×Draw27%
Siroki Brijeg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Siroki Brijeg
0.97

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Siroki Brijeg
1.43

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Siroki Brijeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
64%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Siroki Brijeg
73%
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
63%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
16%
Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
72%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
37%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
14%
Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
71%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
36%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
51%
Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
37%
level
27%
Siroki Brijeg scores more
36%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpik Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg

Siroki Brijeg beat Olimpik Sarajevo 2-1 in Premijer Liga on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.