Siroki Brijeg 3–2 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Siroki Brijeg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

9/25/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 10Stadion Pecara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Siroki Brijeg56%

×Draw25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siroki BrijegExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.83

Siroki Brijeg

1.60

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.83

Siroki Brijeg creates 93% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

1.38

creates per match

0.71

0.96

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Siroki Brijeg

1.38

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.71

allows per match

Siroki Brijeg

0.96

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siroki Brijeg ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Siroki Brijeg or draw

81%

Siroki Brijeg or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

75%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

44%

Winning margin

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

30%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

80%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

47%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

22%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

56%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

74%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siroki Brijeg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siroki Brijeg attack 1.38 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Siroki Brijeg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Siroki Brijeg scores more

56%

level

25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

19%

Siroki Brijeg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff