Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2–3 Siroki Brijeg

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Siroki Brijeg

2/29/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 21MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj35%

×Draw27%

Siroki Brijeg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchSiroki Brijeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.21

Siroki Brijeg

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 110 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.52

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.00

Siroki Brijeg

0.97

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.52

Siroki Brijeg

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Siroki Brijeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

63%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Siroki Brijeg

73%

Draw or Siroki Brijeg

65%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

15%

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

70%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

34%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

12%

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

71%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

36%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

49%

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

35%

level

27%

Siroki Brijeg scores more

37%

Siroki Brijeg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff