Sirius 0–3 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Osters IF

2/23/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sirius49%

×Draw22%

Osters IF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.44

Sirius

1.94

Osters IF

1.44

Sirius creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.30

creates per match

1.57

1.30

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sirius

2.30

Osters IF

1.57

allows per match

Sirius

1.30

Osters IF

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

71%

Sirius or Osters IF

78%

Draw or Osters IF

51%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

28%

Osters IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

86%

Sirius 2+ goals

58%

Sirius 3+ goals

30%

Osters IF 1+ goals

76%

Osters IF 2+ goals

42%

Osters IF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

63%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.30 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.94

Osters IF attack 1.57 + Sirius defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sirius scores more

49%

level

22%

Osters IF scores more

29%

Sirius at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff