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Osters IF vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2018

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sirius
Sirius
6/28/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osters IF37%
×Draw25%
Sirius38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.39
Sirius
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 126 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.06
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Osters IF
1.63
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
62%
Osters IF or Sirius
75%
Draw or Sirius
63%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
17%
Sirius wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
75%
Osters IF 2+ goals
40%
Osters IF 3+ goals
16%
Sirius 1+ goals
76%
Sirius 2+ goals
41%
Sirius 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
49%
Sirius (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.06 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sirius attack 1.21 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Osters IF scores more
37%
level
25%
Sirius scores more
38%

Sirius at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Osters IF 2–2 Sirius

Osters IF and Sirius drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.