Sirius 1–2 Orebro SK: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

Sirius

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Orebro SK

8/2/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 13Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sirius49%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.25

Sirius

1.73

Orebro SK

1.25

Sirius creates 38% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 60 away

1.71

creates per match

0.95

1.56

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

Orebro SK

0.95

allows per match

Sirius

1.56

Orebro SK

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

72%

Sirius or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

51%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

26%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

82%

Sirius 2+ goals

52%

Sirius 3+ goals

25%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

71%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

36%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

64%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Orebro SK attack 0.95 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sirius scores more

49%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

28%

Sirius at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff