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Orebro SK vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sirius
Sirius
9/26/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Orebro SK41%
×Draw25%
Sirius34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.50
Sirius
1.35

Orebro SK creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 126 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.28
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.50
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
66%
Orebro SK or Sirius
75%
Draw or Sirius
59%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
20%
Sirius wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
78%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
44%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
19%
Sirius 1+ goals
74%
Sirius 2+ goals
39%
Sirius 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
54%
Sirius (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.28 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sirius attack 1.21 + Orebro SK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orebro SK scores more
41%
level
25%
Sirius scores more
34%

Orebro SK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Sirius

Orebro SK beat Sirius 2-1 in Allsvenskan on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.