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Sirius vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Sirius
Sirius
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
8/11/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 18Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sirius55%
×Draw23%
Kalmar FF22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.87
Kalmar FF
1.11

Sirius creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sirius
2.24
Kalmar FF
1.28

allows per match

Sirius
0.94
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

Sirius+0.56scores more
Kalmar FF-0.08on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
78%
Sirius or Kalmar FF
77%
Draw or Kalmar FF
45%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
31%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
85%
Sirius 2+ goals
56%
Sirius 3+ goals
29%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
67%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
30%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
71%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.24 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.87

Kalmar FF attack 1.28 + Sirius defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sirius scores more
55%
level
23%
Kalmar FF scores more
22%

Sirius at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sirius vs Kalmar FF

Sirius beat Kalmar FF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.