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Kalmar FF vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sirius
Sirius
5/3/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 6Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kalmar FF30%
×Draw26%
Sirius44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.14
Sirius
1.46

Sirius creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
0.55
Sirius
1.42

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.49
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.25scores more
Sirius+0.58scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
56%
Kalmar FF or Sirius
74%
Draw or Sirius
70%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
12%
Sirius wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
68%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
32%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
11%
Sirius 1+ goals
77%
Sirius 2+ goals
43%
Sirius 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
40%
Sirius (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.72 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.55 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sirius attack 1.42 + Kalmar FF defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
30%
level
26%
Sirius scores more
44%

Sirius at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Kalmar FF 2–2 Sirius

Kalmar FF and Sirius drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on May 3, 2023.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.