Sirius 0–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Varnamo

A. Zeljkovic 5'

4/20/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 4Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Sirius53%

×Draw22%

IFK Varnamo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.25

Sirius

1.94

IFK Varnamo

1.25

Sirius creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

2.04

creates per match

1.19

1.31

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sirius

2.04

IFK Varnamo

1.19

allows per match

Sirius

1.31

IFK Varnamo

1.84

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Sirius+0.44scores more

IFK Varnamo+0.06on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

75%

Sirius or IFK Varnamo

78%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

47%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

31%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

86%

Sirius 2+ goals

58%

Sirius 3+ goals

30%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

71%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

36%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

68%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.31 · 27 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.84 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.04 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.94

IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 + Sirius defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sirius scores more

53%

level

22%

IFK Varnamo scores more

25%

Sirius at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

V. Bergh

IFK Varnamo · D

7.5

Match Events

5'

32'

45+4'

45'

53'

A. Lohikangas← M. Alsalkhadi

65'

H. Sjögrell← M. Lindberg

65'

A. Ljungberg← N. Milleskog

74'

Jakob Voelkerling Persson

79'

P. Nwadike← M. Jeng

80'

André Al Sanati← D. Stensson

83'

J. Kalu← A. Zeljkovic

87'

A. Murbeck← J. Voelkerling Persson

90+1'

J. Rapp← G. Engvall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiriusIFK

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots10

3Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots10

2On Target2

10Off Target2

8Blocked6

11Inside Box3

9Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

616Total Passes412

534Accurate Passes340

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2