IFK Varnamo 2–4 Sirius: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sirius

S. Thern 63'

M. Steinwender 51'

L. Walta 84' (pen), 10'

J. Persson 69', 36'

8/4/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 17Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

IFK Varnamo36%

×Draw25%

Sirius39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchSirius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.44

IFK Varnamo

1.39

Sirius

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

1.10

creates per match

1.37

1.51

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.10

Sirius

1.37

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.51

Sirius

1.67

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.05on par

Sirius+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Sirius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

61%

IFK Varnamo or Sirius

75%

Draw or Sirius

64%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

17%

Sirius wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

75%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

40%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

16%

Sirius 1+ goals

76%

Sirius 2+ goals

42%

Sirius 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

48%

Sirius (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.10 + Sirius defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sirius attack 1.37 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

36%

level

25%

Sirius scores more

39%

Sirius at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Persson

Sirius · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

Emin Grozdanic

10'

L. Walta

13'

Joakim Persson

36'

J. Persson↳ D. Stensson

45+1'

Michael Steinwender

46'

L. Le Roux← H. Näsström

46'

F. Adjei← M. Alsalkhadi

46'

E. Hasić← E. Grozdanic

51'

M. Steinwender↳ S. Thern

63'

S. Thern↳ Wenderson

69'

J. Persson↳ D. Stensson

73'

M. Lindberg← A. Ljungberg

73'

F. Olsson← M. Heier

82'

Filip Olsson

84'

L. WaltaPenalty

87'

V. Ekström← D. Widgren

90+3'

A. Murbeck← J. Persson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKSirius

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots15

1.45Expected Goals (xG)2.56

6Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target7

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

470Total Passes444

399Accurate Passes367

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1