Sirius 1–2 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

IFK Norrkoping

L. Walta 28'

S. Jorgensen 31', 7'

5/19/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 10Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Sirius42%

×Draw24%

IFK Norrkoping35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.48

Sirius

1.64

IFK Norrkoping

1.48

Sirius creates 11% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 121 away

1.71

creates per match

1.40

1.56

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

IFK Norrkoping

1.40

allows per match

Sirius

1.56

IFK Norrkoping

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

65%

Sirius or IFK Norrkoping

76%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

58%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

21%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

81%

Sirius 2+ goals

49%

Sirius 3+ goals

23%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

77%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

43%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

54%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sirius scores more

42%

level

24%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

35%

Sirius at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Walta

Sirius · M

9.2

Match Events

7'

S. Jorgensen↳ D. Karlsson

28'

L. Walta↳ R. Ure

31'

S. Jorgensen↳ I. Sigurgeirsson

35'

Amadeus Sögaard

44'

Yahya Kalley

53'

M. Watson← A. Sogaard

63'

I. Bjerkebo← N. Milleskog

65'

M. Baggesen← Y. Kalley

65'

A. Fransson← M. Neffati

70'

Melker Heier

72'

Arnór Traustason

84'

A. Ljungberg← M. Lindberg

88'

K. Jansson← S. Jorgensen

88'

A. Andersson← T. Prica

90+4'

Åke Andersson

90+4'

T. Carlsson← S. Sandberg

90+4'

A. Vikman← M. Heier

90+4'

V. Ekstrom← J. Voelkerling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiriusIFK

Overview

60%Possession40%

25Total Shots8

2.73Expected Goals (xG)1.31

14Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

25Total Shots8

7On Target3

10Off Target2

8Blocked3

17Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

476Total Passes352

391Accurate Passes275

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1