IFK Norrkoping 0–2 Sirius: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sirius

L. Walta 77'

M. Heier 13'

10/3/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 23PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

IFK Norrkoping48%

×Draw24%

Sirius28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchSirius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.24

IFK Norrkoping

1.69

Sirius

1.24

IFK Norrkoping creates 36% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 126 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

1.27

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.67

Sirius

1.21

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

Sirius

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Sirius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

72%

IFK Norrkoping or Sirius

76%

Draw or Sirius

52%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

25%

Sirius wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

82%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

50%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

24%

Sirius 1+ goals

71%

Sirius 2+ goals

35%

Sirius 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

63%

Sirius (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 121 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.67 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sirius attack 1.21 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

48%

level

24%

Sirius scores more

28%

IFK Norrkoping at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Castegren

Sirius · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

M. Heier↳ Y. Salech

46'

M. Baggesen← Y. Kalley

63'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← L. Shabani

63'

K. Khazeni← V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

63'

C. Björk← D. Salihović

68'

76'

77'

85'

86'

Å. Andersson← A. Traustason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKSirius

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots15

1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.06

6Corners4

6Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots15

3On Target6

7Off Target5

6Blocked4

12Inside Box11

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

447Total Passes551

381Accurate Passes474

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1