Sirius 2–0 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Norrkoping

11/12/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 30Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sirius63%

×Draw19%

IFK Norrkoping18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.13

Sirius

2.29

IFK Norrkoping

1.13

Sirius creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.24

creates per match

1.32

0.94

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Sirius

2.24

IFK Norrkoping

1.32

allows per match

Sirius

0.94

IFK Norrkoping

2.35

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Sirius+0.56scores more

IFK Norrkoping-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

82%

Sirius or IFK Norrkoping

81%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

37%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

40%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

90%

Sirius 2+ goals

66%

Sirius 3+ goals

40%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

68%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

31%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

78%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.24 + IFK Norrkoping defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + Sirius defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sirius scores more

63%

level

19%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

18%

Sirius at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff