Sirius 0–3 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby FF

10/26/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 28Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Sirius38%

×Draw24%

Hammarby FF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.50

Sirius

1.52

Hammarby FF

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

1.71

creates per match

1.45

1.56

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

Hammarby FF

1.45

allows per match

Sirius

1.56

Hammarby FF

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

63%

Sirius or Hammarby FF

76%

Draw or Hammarby FF

62%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

18%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

78%

Sirius 2+ goals

45%

Sirius 3+ goals

20%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

78%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

44%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

51%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sirius scores more

38%

level

24%

Hammarby FF scores more

37%

Sirius at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff