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Hammarby FF vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2018

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
5/14/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 93Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Hammarby FF57%
×Draw22%
Sirius21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.98
Sirius
1.11

Hammarby FF creates 78% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
2.25
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Hammarby FF
1.01
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
79%
Hammarby FF or Sirius
78%
Draw or Sirius
43%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
34%
Sirius wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
86%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
59%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
31%
Sirius 1+ goals
67%
Sirius 2+ goals
30%
Sirius 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
73%
Sirius (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sirius attack 1.21 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
57%
level
22%
Sirius scores more
21%

Hammarby FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 3–2 Sirius

Hammarby FF beat Sirius 3-2 in Allsvenskan on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.