Sirius 4–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dalkurd FF

M. Mathisen 85', 56'

E. Sylisufaj 58'

D. Stensson 34'

2/25/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sirius56%

×Draw20%

Dalkurd FF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.43

Sirius

2.26

Dalkurd FF

1.43

Sirius creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.56

1.30

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sirius

2.30

Dalkurd FF

1.56

allows per match

Sirius

1.30

Dalkurd FF

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

76%

Sirius or Dalkurd FF

80%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

44%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

34%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

89%

Sirius 2+ goals

66%

Sirius 3+ goals

39%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

76%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

42%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

70%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.30 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.26

Dalkurd FF attack 1.56 + Sirius defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sirius scores more

56%

level

20%

Dalkurd FF scores more

24%

Sirius at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

37'

44'

45'

56'

58'

62'

V. Svensson← N. Ntuli

63'

A. Alsanati← T. Matthews

63'

H. Sjögrell← J. Persson

71'

A. Wikman← P. Nwadike

71'

J. Voelkerling Persson← Ó. Ómarsson

76'

A. Ernström← S. Wikman

76'

R. Othman← M. Kargbo

79'

A. Ljungberg← D. Stensson

85'

M. Mathisen

86'

R. Deprem

90+2'

R. Johansson

90+2'

O. Ali

Sirius

Dalkurd

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: C. Mattiasson

63'▲A. Alsanati←▼T. Matthews

63'▲H. Sjögrell←▼J. Persson

71'▲A. Wikman←▼P. Nwadike

71'▲J. Voelkerling Persson←▼Ó. Ómarsson

79'▲A. Ljungberg←▼D. Stensson

Sirius substitutes

AlsanatiSjögrellWikmanPerssonLjungbergÖzkanSveijer

Manager: A. Azrafshan

62'▲V. Svensson←▼N. Ntuli

76'▲A. Ernström←▼S. Wikman

76'▲R. Othman←▼M. Kargbo

Dalkurd FF substitutes

SvenssonErnströmOthmanHöökEriksson