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Dalkurd FF vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sirius
Sirius
7/28/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 15Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF34%
×Draw24%
Sirius42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.46
Sirius
1.64

Sirius creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
58%
Dalkurd FF or Sirius
76%
Draw or Sirius
66%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
16%
Sirius wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
77%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
43%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
18%
Sirius 1+ goals
81%
Sirius 2+ goals
49%
Sirius 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
45%
Sirius (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sirius attack 1.21 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
34%
level
24%
Sirius scores more
42%

Sirius at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Sirius

Sirius beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.