Siquinalá 1–2 Deportivo Sanarate: Result & Stats

Siquinalá

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Sanarate

10/19/2019

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal Mateo Sicay Paz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Siquinalá46%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Sanarate30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiquinaláExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Sanarate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Siquinalá

1.67

Deportivo Sanarate

1.29

Siquinalá creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Siquinalá

1.33

Deportivo Sanarate

1.09

allows per match

Siquinalá

1.50

Deportivo Sanarate

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siquinalá+0.00on par

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siquinalá ↓

Deportivo Sanarate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Siquinalá or draw

70%

Siquinalá or Deportivo Sanarate

76%

Draw or Deportivo Sanarate

54%

Winning margin

Siquinalá wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Siquinalá 1+ goals

81%

Siquinalá 2+ goals

50%

Siquinalá 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Siquinalá (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siquinalá at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Deportivo Sanarate away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siquinalá attack 1.33 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.09 + Siquinalá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Siquinalá scores more

46%

level

24%

Deportivo Sanarate scores more

30%

Siquinalá at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Siquinalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff