Deportivo Sanarate 1–0 Siquinalá: Result & Stats

Deportivo Sanarate

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Siquinalá

3/11/2020

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal de Sanarate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportivo Sanarate54%

×Draw26%

Siquinalá20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo SanarateExpected goals in this matchSiquinalá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.84

Deportivo Sanarate

1.56

Siquinalá

0.84

Deportivo Sanarate creates 86% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

0.76

0.92

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Deportivo Sanarate

1.11

Siquinalá

0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Sanarate

0.92

Siquinalá

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Siquinalá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Sanarate ↓

Siquinalá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Sanarate or draw

80%

Deportivo Sanarate or Siquinalá

74%

Draw or Siquinalá

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+

29%

Siquinalá wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals

21%

Siquinalá 1+ goals

57%

Siquinalá 2+ goals

21%

Siquinalá 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)

73%

Siquinalá (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Sanarate at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Siquinalá away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.11 + Siquinalá defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Siquinalá attack 0.76 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Sanarate scores more

54%

level

26%

Siquinalá scores more

20%

Deportivo Sanarate at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Sanarate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff