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Sion II vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Sion II
Sion II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pully Football
Pully Football
10/7/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sion II57%
×Draw21%
Pully Football22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sion II
2.12
Pully Football
1.24

Sion II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sion II
1.83
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Sion II
1.35
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Sion II+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sion II ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sion II or draw
78%
Sion II or Pully Football
79%
Draw or Pully Football
43%

Winning margin

Sion II wins by 2+
35%
Pully Football wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sion II 1+ goals
88%
Sion II 2+ goals
62%
Sion II 3+ goals
35%
Pully Football 1+ goals
71%
Pully Football 2+ goals
35%
Pully Football 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sion II (draw refunded)
72%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sion II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sion II attack 1.83 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.12

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Sion II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sion II scores more
57%
level
21%
Pully Football scores more
22%

Sion II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Sion II 4–0 Pully Football

Sion II beat Pully Football 4-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.