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Pully Football vs Sion II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Pully Football
Pully Football
FT
2 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Sion II
Sion II
4/20/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Centre sportif de Rochettaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pully Football35%
×Draw22%
Sion II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pully Football
1.69
Sion II
1.90

Sion II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pully Football
1.67
Sion II
1.60

allows per match

Pully Football
2.20
Sion II
1.72

finishing

Pully Football+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pully Football ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pully Football or draw
57%
Pully Football or Sion II
78%
Draw or Sion II
65%

Winning margin

Pully Football wins by 2+
17%
Sion II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pully Football 1+ goals
82%
Pully Football 2+ goals
50%
Pully Football 3+ goals
24%
Sion II 1+ goals
85%
Sion II 2+ goals
56%
Sion II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pully Football (draw refunded)
45%
Sion II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pully Football at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pully Football attack 1.67 + Sion II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sion II attack 1.60 + Pully Football defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pully Football scores more
35%
level
22%
Sion II scores more
43%

Sion II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pully Football vs Sion II

Sion II beat Pully Football 7-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Rochettaz in Pully.